Here’s Who’s Moving to and Leaving Our Region

A data-driven look at how steady waves of new residents are reshaping Sarasota and Manatee counties.

While some people are moving out, still more are moving in.

Image: Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock.com

Article by Kim Doleatto , Sarasota Magazine

In a region known for its beaches and arts scene, Sarasota and Manatee counties have become a growing migration destination in Florida. But behind headlines about soaring home prices—a little less lately, but still—and packed airport arrivals lies a more nuanced question: Who is coming here and who is leaving?

It’s nothing new. We’ve written about the region’s pandemic-era popularity many times over the last several years. But new data offers a broader look at the latest numbers.

The North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro area (which spans Sarasota and Manatee counties) added roughly 76,392 people between 2020 and 2023, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Virtually all of that growth has come from net migration—the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving—as opposed to natural increase.

Who’s Coming

Data from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) shows that Sarasota County’s net migration rate was roughly 97 percent of its total population growth between 2022 and 2023, the most recent data available. In Manatee County, it was a similar story, with 93 percent of growth fueled by migration rather than births exceeding deaths.

In other words, the region’s population is being imported.

IRS county-to-county migration files, combined with driver license data from DMVs, give the clearest picture of the inbound wave.

Between 2021 and 2022, the recent full data year, IRS data shows that Sarasota County gained 4,238 people from Miami-Dade County; 3,772 people from Cook County, Illinois (Chicago area); 3,511 people from New York City; 2,870 people from Queens County, New York; and 2,115 people from New Jersey.

Manatee County saw a similar pattern, with strong inflows from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

DMV data for 2023 is comparable. New York continues to lead the state-of-origin driver’s license swaps for both counties, followed by Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. More than 3,500 New Yorkers alone relocated to Sarasota-Manatee in 2023.

Who’s Leaving

Despite the influx, some residents are also moving out—although that number of people is fewer than the number of those arriving.

In Sarasota County, top outbound destinations in 2021-2022 included Lee County, Hillsborough County, Charlotte County and out-of-state moves to North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia, according to IRS data.

Meanwhile, American Community Survey mobility data shows that outbound movers tend to be either younger households priced out by rising costs or older retirees shifting closer to family elsewhere.

Overall, however, the IRS data shows that Sarasota-Manatee continues to have a positive net migration rate. Inbound migration exceeds outbound migration by roughly 3-to-1 in Sarasota County and 2.5-to-1 in Manatee County.

Older Isn’t Old News

The North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro remains among the oldest in the United States. Its median age is now 54, higher than Florida’s statewide median of 42 and the national median of 39. (Everyone knows someone whose grandparents retired here, right?)

But the stereotype of Sarasota as solely a retirement destination is fading, too. DMV data show a rising number of inbound migrations among working-age households, especially those in healthcare, construction, education, and remote work sectors. And the BEBR projects that younger inflows will slightly rebalance the demographic spread through 2040.

While the region remains overwhelmingly driven by domestic migration, international migration remains a small but growing share of total move-ins, too. According to the BEBR, roughly 7 percent of Sarasota County’s net migration in 2023 came from foreign countries, with Canada, South America and Western Europe leading the list.

BEBR also projects Sarasota County’s population will reach 559,000 by 2050; Manatee County is forecast to approach 598,000 over the same period. That means migration to our area shows no immediate sign of slowing.